October 2024 Sees Iconic Models From Legacy Brands Losing Steam

The Wristcheck 100 (WC100) continues its downward trend in October. Overall, the secondary watch market has fallen 5.4% since January 2024

As Trump secures his victory in the US elections and the holiday season approaches, the market's future remains uncertain. Some early indicators hint at potential gains, with both the stock and cryptocurrency markets showing signs of rallying. These developments could potentially have a positive impact on the watch market in the upcoming year.

Patek Philippe sent shockwaves through the industry when they revealed their latest Cubitus collection. Departing from their iconic Nautilus design, the Cubitus boasts a strikingly square-shaped case. Early in October, Patek Philippe's stock (PP25) showed modest growth before gradually declining towards the end of the month. However, around October 12-13th, rumors swirled about an upcoming announcement after a cryptic ad appeared in Fortune magazine – likely contributing to the initial uptick. When the news finally broke on October 17th, there was a momentary surge in stock before stabilizing again for about a week.

 

The Patek Philippe Nautilus 15 Index (PP-NAU15) followed a similar pattern as the overall brand's performance. It began its ascent on October 4th and maintained a stable position around 62,600. However, it took a sudden nosedive on October 24th.

 

Similarly, the Patek Philippe Aquanaut 15 Index (PP-AQU15) experienced a moderate increase throughout the month. Its journey upward started on October 6th and held steady at around 67,400 before plummeting towards the end of the month.

 

Despite the overall state of the secondary watch market being less than ideal, some models enjoyed unprecedented growth:

Parmigiani Fleurier Tonda Hemispheres Rose Gold White Dial

Parmigiani Fleurier’s Tonda Hemisphere in rose gold with a white dial has exhibited rather curious results over the past three months. The model gained more than eight percent in value on the secondary market. That being said, however, this uptick still doesn't quite do the model any favors, as its positioning on the market is at US$ 11,238, which is more than one-third of its retail price. 

Tudor Black Bay Steel Black Dial

The stainless steel variant of Tudor Black Bay is another one of our top gainers this month—the ref. M79230N-0001 was rather stable during August and September before shooting up in early October, rising 5.9 percent over the past 90 days. As of November 1st, this watch was trading at US$ 3,083, which is about 24.8 percent under its retail price. 

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore Diver Steel Yellow Dial

The yellow dial variant of the Royal Oak Offshore Diver has been experiencing a rather turbulent time over the past three months. The ref. 26703ST.OO.A051CA.01 started off at the US$ 26,000 mark in August before climbing to US$ 27,000in September and then falling back to 26k again. In October, however, the watch shot up to 27.5k and then to almost 28k, where it rests today. 

 

Continuing last month’s line that, in many ways, reflected the state of the secondary watch market, some iconic models from the players dominating the watch market are falling behind. Still, these watches continue to be priced way above their retail prices. 

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph White Gold Blue Dial

The white gold and blue dial variant of the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph has suffered quite a fall. An “ouch” would be an appropriate reaction. See for yourself, in August 2024, the ref. 26239BC.OO.1220BC.01 was valued at US$ 110,000 on the secondary watch market. Come September, it began sliding – nay – falling until it reached US$ 82,834 on November 1st (which is still about 5 percent above its retail price). 

Rolex Oyster Perpetual Steel Celebration Dial

After following and analyzing the watch market for the past year, few things truly surprise us. That being said, the most recent performance of Rolex Oyster Perpetual Steel Celebration Dial did raise an eyebrow. From August up until early October, the ref. 126000-0009 was valued at US$ 11,500 before it began declining. As of November 1st, the watch rests at US$ 10,763 and still has a hefty price premium of 68.91 percent. 

Vacheron Constantin Overseas Ultra-Thin Perpetual Calendar Rose Gold Silver Dial

Another member of the holy trinity of watchmaking on the list of this month’s top decliners is Vacheron Constantin. The Overseas Ultra-Thin Perpetual Calendar in rose gold with silver dial was trading at more than US$ 100,000 in August before dropping to US$ 95k. Though it climbed back up in September, the ref. 4300V/2F120R-B064 dropped lower still to US$ 92,950.