As of November 2024, The Secondary Watch Market’s Growth is Down Across the Board

Following the tumultuous US elections, the stock market has steadily declined. However, in a surprising turn of events, Patek Philippe and F.P. Journe have dominated headlines this month, breaking records for the most expensive 1) Nautilus and 2) independent watches sold at auction.

 

November saw the Wristcheck 100 (WC100) continuing to trend downwards, with a decrease of 6.3% since January 2024 in the secondary watch market. This is consistent with the global trends in the luxury market. Richemont's FY25 Interim Report revealed a global slowdown in the industry, with a 17% decline in sales compared to the previous year. The Asia Pacific region took the biggest hit, experiencing a 28% drop and accounting for half of last year's sales. Despite these challenges, there is a growing interest in classic models such as Cartier's Panthère and Santos lines. Richemont also saw success in watch and jewelry sales from Buccellati, Cartier, and Van Cleef & Arpels, showing that there is still potential for growth in certain areas despite the overall downturn.

The U.S. elections have had a noticeable impact on the watch market. Notably, there was a brief period of instability where all indexes experienced a dip on November 5th. Although the market has not fully recovered yet, there is still potential for growth in the future. As we've seen other sectors, like cryptocurrency, rebounding from the election effects, it's possible that the watch market will also follow suit in due time. 

 

Despite the overall state of the secondary watch market being less than ideal, some models enjoyed some growth:

Patek Philippe Nautilus Rose Gold Brown Dial 40mm

Over the past month, the ref. 5711/1R-001 gained almost five percent on the secondary watch market. Although in the context of the current market situation this number might be seen as impressive, it becomes less so when we zoom out and look at the model’s track record over the past 90 days. In September 2024, this rose gold variant of the Nautilus suffered a drop, from which it only recovered in mid-November, which contributed to an overall growth of 0.4 percent over three months. That’s not to say that ref. 5711/1R-001  is underappreciated. On the contrary, its current price point of US$ 163,547 on the secondary market is a staggering 176.54 percent above retail. 

Rolex Sky-Dweller Steel Blue Dial

In November 2024, the blue-dial variant of the stainless steel Rolex Sky-Dweller grew about 3.4 percent on the secondary watch market. Again, if we look at this model’s three-month history instead, we’ll see that the growth wasn’t all that dramatic and constituted two percent. This was due to the drop of the ref. 336934-0005’s drop in October’s end, from which it recovered only on December 1st. As of December 9th, this model costs about US$ 24,000, more than 40 percent above retail. 

Patek Philippe Gondolo Serata White Gold Diamond Mother of Pearl

The one model that’s exhibited consistent growth on the secondary watch market not only in the past month but since early September is Patek Philippe ref. 4972/1G-001. The white gold Gondolo Serata variant with diamonds and mother of pearl has grown almost six percent over the past 90 days. This growth, however, still wasn’t enough for the model to reach its retail threshold of US$ 58,500, for as of December 9th, its price was reportedly at US$ 38,729. 

 

Continuing last month’s trend that, in many ways, reflected the state of the secondary watch market, some iconic models from the players dominating the watch market are falling behind. 

Patek Philippe Gondolo Rose Gold Diamonds Silver Dial

The ref. 7041R-001 wasn’t as lucky. The model witnessed a drop of 7.5 percent over the past month and more than eight percent if we look at its 90-day performance on the secondary watch market. During this period, the rose gold variant of Patek Philippe Gondolo peaked at US$ 14,342 on October 17th before dropping to US$ 13,036 as of December 9th. Right now, this watch is valued more than 60 percent below its retail value. 

Rolex Daytona White Gold Silver Dial

Talk about peaks and valleys! The white gold Rolex Daytona variant with silver dial has had quite a ride these past three months. Starting at US$ 51,520 on September 9th, it dropped to US$ 48,328 on October 2nd before climbing back up to US$ 51,591 come November. And then, by December 9th, it dropped even more, hitting a new low of US$ 47,932. We could well witness the ref. 116509-0072 soon reach its retail value of US$ 41,600 (provided we don’t witness more peaks in 2025).

Rolex Daytona Yellow Gold Black Dial

Another Daytona on our list of decliners is the coveted yellow-gold variant with a black dial. Up until mid-November, the ref. 126508-0002’s performance on the secondary watch market has been rather stable, with minor fluctuations around US$ 55,000. Then, it began dropping and dropping (and dropping) until it reached US$ 52,444 on December 1st. This contributed to an overall decline of 5.3 percent over the last 90 days.