The Meteoric Rise of Audemars Piguet's Royal Oak Ref. 15202
Thanks to a growing interest from younger collectors, the secondary market for contemporary watches like the Royal Oak Ref. 15202ST has seen a huge transformation in recent years. As this legendary collection from Audemars Piguet turns 50 this year, we bring you an in-depth analysis of its phenomenal success over the last decade
Thanks to a growing interest from younger collectors, the secondary market for contemporary watches like the Royal Oak Ref. 15202ST has seen a huge transformation in recent years. As this legendary collection from Audemars Piguet turns 50 this year, we bring you an in-depth analysis of its phenomenal success over the last decade
After years of disrepute and a tarnished personal life, when Justin Bieber decided to start afresh in 2019, there was a lot of chatter around his new-found spirituality and domestic bliss. Determined to get his squeaky-clean makeover right, the sweatsuited pop star also tweaked his ever-evolving sartorial style with some retro chic. Mostly spotted wearing a yellow gold Daytona, Bieber bought himself an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Reference 5402BA in celebration of his wedding to American model, Hailey Baldwin.
An 18k yellow gold Royal Oak with a silver tapisserie dial, Audemars Piguet produced this particular reference from 1977 until the early '80s – nearly two decades before Bieber was born. So how does this watch influence his long walk to redemption, you may ask? Well, in the watchmaking circles, Bieber’s choice is not just a reflection of his discerning taste but also a deeper understanding of an iconic collection that’s largely driven by one particular model in steel these days. Yes, we are referring to the insanely hot Royal Oak Jumbo Extra Thin Ref. 15202ST, a steel sports watch with direct lineage to the original Gérald Genta Ref. 5402 design from 1972.
To get a sense of the meteoric rise of the Ref.15202ST over the last few years, consider these numbers. In 2016, this watch was selling for an average of 17,000 Euros per piece. It took five years, from 2016 to 2020, for its price to appreciate 2.8X. Last January, when AP’s CEO, François-Henry Bennahmias, announced the closure of this reference, it gave wings to its prices that soared nearly 70 percent by April and the watch was ultimately selling at 80,000 Euros.
According to our collaborative data from Watchanalytics, the average price for Ref.15202ST touched an unprecedented 100,000 Euros by the end of 2021. According to Alexandre Ghotbi, Phillips head of watches, Continental Europe and Middle East, “The Ref.15202ST is a wonderful ambassador for the Royal Oak collection because of its incredible impact on the brand as well as the community over the last few years. However, it was the Ref.5402, the original Genta design, which actually made this collection so successful.” “In 2012, when AP introduced the Ref.15202 in 39mm with Calibre 2121 and the AP logo at six o'clock, it really hit the nail on the head – it was the watch that best represents the Royal Oak and Audemars Piguet even today. It is a watch that speaks to people across generations – it has been desirable for people who were in their 20s at the time of its launch 50 years ago and it is equally enticing for those in their 20s today” he says.
So when Bieber strutted around with his ref. 5402BA – the first ever gold model from the Royal Oak – it fortified his reputation as a tastemaker within the cultish watch community. Synonymous with debonair chic for 50 years now, the Royal Oak Ref. 5402 and its modern interpretation, the Ref.15202ST, are one of those few watches that have altered the price dynamics in the luxury watch market in recent years. So much so that the young, aspirational generation is ready to pay any price to have one of these collectibles in their collection. “Traditionally, collectors would have a rationale behind buying a certain watch and they would evaluate the price in the current market in comparison with what it was five years ago. They would talk to us at length about the expected appreciation in prices and other things but nowadays there are these new collectors who are just sweeping a lot of watches because it’s the thing to do; those are the pieces to have in one’s collection and it doesn't matter if the prices are 200 percent higher than retail. This is a bit of a new phenomenon for us,” says Alexandre Bigler, Vice President and Head of Watches, Christie's Asia Pacific.
According to a recent report by The Mercury Project, a Swiss watch and jewelry consulting firm, around 152 Royal Oaks priced above CHF 100, 000 were sold at auctions last year. Out of these, six were the 15202s. While Phillips sold a brand new Ref.15202ST at its New York auction in December for a neat CHF 114,931, Christie’s Only Watch Auction sealed the status of this watch as the ultimate reference from the Royal Oak collection with a result of CHF 3.1 million – by far the highest price ever reached for a Royal Oak Extra-Thin Jumbo. A unique piece made particularly for this charity auction, the Royal Oak 15202XT Jumbo used a palladium-based alloy called Bulk Metallic Glass on the bezel and studs of the bracelet. The dark grey (rhodium-toned) dial with the classic "Petite Tapisserie" pattern, paid tribute to the dials of the first generation of Royal Oak, the 5402 A Series.
The OG Ref. 5402 ST too made a big noise at auctions last year. Antiquorum’s July auction in Monaco sold a 5402ST with a black lacquered dial, original set of box, certificate and service invoices at a whopping CHF 295,756, while Phillips had a well-preserved 5402 ST from the B series register CHF 170,100 at The Geneva Watch Auction, in May.
The OG: Royal Oak Ref. 5402
In 1972, Audemars Piguet was a reputed yet small manufacture that made around 6,000 pieces a year. It was, however, run by a bunch of visionaries like Georges Golay, who commissioned Gerald Genta to design a steel watch that cost much more than most of the gold timepieces the brand was then famous for. Priced at a princely sum of 3,750 Swiss Francs (you could buy 12 Rolex Submariners for the same amount then), the Royal Oak Ref. 5402 was launched in limited numbers particularly to test waters in the style-conscious Italian market.
The industrial design – brushed, polished and faceted steel case, integrated bracelet and prominent screws on the bezel– was too audacious for those days and it took AP almost three years to sell the initial 1000 pieces. However, somewhere around 1974, the watch started enjoying the attention of the men who mattered – Prince Michael of Kent, Italian industrialist and style icon Gianni Agnelli and French actor Alain Delon, whose watch fetched nearly 69,000 euros at auction in 2012. Ultimately, this watch got so popular that AP was compelled to make another 1,000 pieces of what is now recognised as the Reference 5402ST A series.
A true byproduct of its era, the Ref. 5402 represents the limitless creativity and experimentation in design as seen in architecture, automobile and home interiors from the late 1960s. “I’m a watch nerd and I like most watches but some I like more than the rest. The Royal Oak is definitely one of those, and the reason isn’t that it was ground-breaking (which it was) for introducing a new design language, it’s because of the incredible diversity that exists in that family even 50 years later,” says Arthur Touchot, International Head Of Digital Strategy at Phillips. “If you look at the lineage of the Royal Oak, you find a pretty straight line from the Ref. 5204ST to 15202ST, but the rest of the family tree takes you on a fascinating journey of creativity and innovation. That same Ref. 5402 in stainless steel leads the Royal Oak to 33mm quartz pieces in gold, skeletonized perpetual calendars in ceramic, and everything in between. How many watches can claim to be so fluid in form and function?,” he says.
Royal Oak Ref.15202 : What’s the Big Deal?
The Ref. 5402 not just proved to be a savior for Audemars Piguet during the Quartz Crisis but it also elevated the status of watch designers in the industry with Gerald Genta heralding a new era of legendary designs for the likes of Patek Philippe, Bvlgari and Cartier.
The dial design for the Ref. 5402 was tweaked over the years with the ‘AP’ logo at 6 o’clock, then to noon and back to 6 o’clock again. However, the real game-changer in its historical evolution came with the Ref. 15202 launched in 2000, and then again re-issued in 2012 on the model’s 40th anniversary. According to François-Henry Bennahmias, it was the 40th anniversary of the Royal Oak that actually put the watch back on the map. “In 2011, we were selling more Offshores than the Royal Oak and even a watch like the 15202 was not selling anymore. There were only two countries where the watch was performing well, Italy and Germany. We even thought of stopping the model at one point. Then the 40th anniversary came and we did a good job at telling the story behind the entire collection and that revived the line almost instantly. We were flooded with inquiries for 15202; we had inquiries from our museum for many watches and other things. We opened the door of education and that's what we did over the last decade. So the Royal Oak took over from the Offshore collection and it's already a lot more,” recalled Bennahmias in a recent interview with Wristcheck’s Founder and CEO, Austen Chu.
Powered by the same Calibre 2121, which was seen in the original model, the 40th anniversary piece offered a clear view of the iconic movement through a sapphire caseback. Designed by Jaeger-LeCoultre and also used by Vacheron Constantin (as cal. 1120) and Patek Philippe (as 28-255), this movement was incredibly flat at 3.05mm, thanks to the construction of the rotor on a rail.
A cult-favourite for decades, the Ref. 15202 ST is the most faithful interpretation of the 5402 ST with nominal physical differences. One of the most desirable luxury watches in the world, the Ref. 15202 Jumbo got a huge socio-cultural boost as AP took it off its boutiques and from authorised dealers to be made available only as a special order.
In 2019, a 15202ST was selling for anywhere between Euros 36,000 and Euros 40,000, a good 55 percent premium over retail. Last year, when AP announced the end of this series, the prices in the secondary market jumped from an average of Euros 48,000 in January 2021 to Euros 100,000 by the end of the year. “It is very interesting that the craze for this 22-year-old reference really started just over the past three years or so. It is the same reference that was given a facelift in 2012 but most people gravitate towards the modern 15202s these days and this is actually a testament to the strength of the original design from 1972,” says Austen Chu, Founder and CEO, Wristcheck.
“The Ref. 15202 was actually the watch that first got me into the watch world and it was purely from a design perspective, since I had no idea about its price then. I think I was just 13-years-old then but I just immediately gravitated towards that iconic shape. I have been lucky enough to own 15202s and I can attest to the fact that it is honestly, one of the most perfect sizes out there and the proportions and just everything about the watch is perfect. I can't name a single flaw, aesthetically. Movement-wise, I would say it would be easier if it was a quick set date but hopefully AP would add that in the replacement model,” says Austen. “Nevertheless, it is an icon that has been in production for 21 years. And something that is equally as important as the discontinuation of the model is the fact that the brand is also retiring the Calibre 2121, which has been a very intricate, ultra-thin workhorse for the Royal Oak line since its birth. I'm sure what they have in store next is going to be even better and I can’t wait to see it.”
Besides the fact that it is one of the most well-designed and powerful watch icons in the world, the Ref. 15202 ST gets even more desirable because of its limited numbers. In a recent interview with McKinsey & Company, AP’s chief, François-Henry Bennahmias, said, “We could sell 2,500, maybe 3,000 of our Royal Oak ‘Jumbo’ Extra-Thin models a year. But we only make 900. If we made 3,000 pieces tomorrow, no one would want it. That’s just how it works.”
Audemars Piguet indeed produces another steel, automatic, time-and-date version of the Royal Oak like the Ref. 15500ST (available in black, blue and grey) and other References like 15300 (39mm) and 15400 (41mm) for prices substantially lower than a 15202ST but those are not as sleek and as faithful to the original Ref. 5402 in terms of design. “The incredible rise of the Ref.15202ST is totally in tune with the era it was launched in. It was at the right place at the right time – with people looking for more sporty and versatile watches to be worn everyday and all the time. It was a cultural shift from Sedans to SUVs, business suits to casual wear and this watch totally gelled in. Most importantly, the Ref. 15202ST has been a true brand ambassador for the Royal Oak,” says Ghotbi.
The immense popularity of the Ref. 15202ST has worked well for the other Royal Oak “Jumbo” Extra Thin models as well. Right from the Ref.15202BC with the gorgeous salmon dial to the Ref. 15202BA in yellow gold, the demand for these variations of the legend has been going up in the secondary markets. According to Watchanalytics, the Ref.15202BC was selling for an average of Euros 91,500 in 2019. By the end of 2020, its price had appreciated to Euros 120,000, an increase of about 31 percent. Last year, the average price for this watch rose nearly 70 percent to about Euros 165,000. “While the Jumbo ‘Salmon’ Ref. 15202BC is beautiful, it is very rarely available. In Nov 2021, we sold one of these for CHF 222,489 at The Hong Watch Auction. The yellow gold models are also impossible to find but I think the steel version remains the true winner, as it has been in production for decades now and for even a longer run than the original Ref. 5402,” says Ghotbi.
What’s Next
In the 1990s, Audemars Piguet was making around 16,000 watches a year. Over the next decade, the manufacture expanded its capacity to produce 40,000 units annually and yet today, there aren’t just enough watches to satiate AP enthusiasts world over. “I want people to understand that we are not playing any games here. We can increase our production but it has to happen organically, in small quantities,” says Bennhamias. “It is difficult to assess how many watches to make for a single reference and how many watches to allocate to a particular market; the manufacturing constraints are real. So this year, besides allocating some watches for our regular clients, we have made some serious allocation for people who aren’t AP clients yet,” he says.
Thanks to a growing interest from younger collectors, the secondary market for contemporary watches like the Ref. 15202 has seen a huge transformation in recent years. And given the current gap between demand and supply, the euphoria seems to be just catching up with a whole new generation, which is ready to spend millions on modern unicorns.
“We haven't seen this sort of explosion in prices for certain models like AP’s Ref. 15202 in a really long time. There has been a huge shift in prices for contemporary watches and that's unusual. I think there's a lot of emotion going into these kinds of purchases, so that’s why we need to take this phenomenon with a pinch of salt. Is this normal? Will we see the prices for Ref. 15202 and other discontinued models from blue chip brands continue to rise in the coming months? Yes, there are good chances that this enthusiasm would continue to thrive and it will eventually help the demand for contemporary watches grow even further,” says Bigler.
As the Royal Oak steps into a bright new decade this year, we can't wait to discover the next generation watches in this legendary collection, however, I have a feeling that the Ref.15202ST will continue to be the ultimate octagonal token of luxury for many, many years to come.
