5 Experts On What Watches Will Look Like In 2023

We're only a few weeks to 2023, and already it's shaping up to be an interesting year for the world of watches. We have the first flush of new releases, mostly from LVMH-group brands, and some significant anniversaries (we're looking at you Daytona!) to celebrate. New models are exciting and dopamine-inducing, but the bigger picture is just as interesting, thanks to the ongoing impacts of the pandemic on the global watch market. We spoke to a range of industry leaders and experts, to get their take on what the next 12 months might have in store, especially in relation to trends in releases and design, as well as the auction market and the industry in general.

The Return of The Buyer’s Market

To accurately predict the future, you have to know the past. Perhaps that's why one of our first stops was Collectability founder, and Patek Philippe expert, John Reardon. Given Reardon's background at major auction houses, asking him what 2023 might hold for auctions seems like a natural place to start. "I expect to see some positive trends in terms of auction house transparency. We are increasingly seeing the houses publish condition reports online and make statements regarding authenticity. There is still a long road ahead, but the auction houses know they need to share more information to get top prices. The market demands it,” he says. 

As far as results are concerned, Reardon expects to see some more records at the high end of the market, especially with trophy vintage pieces. For the modern segment, he expects things to continue to settle down as supply increases and demand decreases with the complete exodus of speculative money. “The good news is that I expect we will move towards a buyers' market shortly, meaning true collectors will have the chance to buy what they want at more reasonable price points,” he says. In terms of challenges, Reardon acknowledges that supply of quality vintage pieces will continue to be an issue. When it comes to what's on Reardon's 2023 Patek Philippe wishlist, he says; “I hope to see more rare handicrafts and hopefully an expansion of new references within the Ellipse line. My dream release would be an Ellipse with some sort of complication."
 

Online Auctions and Private Sales To Gain Momentum

Another expert in the auction space is Arthur Touchot, International Head of Digital Strategy and Watch Specialist at Phillips. Unsurprisingly, Touchot is interested in the auction space, and notes that last year was remarkable, with an explosive first half, especially in the emergent genre of 'hype' watches. Of course, the second half of the year saw the space quiet down, though he notes that values are still well ahead of retail. "Overall, the feeling at the end of the year was that the auction market is facing some headwinds despite most houses recording their best-ever annual total." 

Touchot explained that he believes that many houses will "Want to further develop their online and private sales programs in order to continue to offer the more commercial 'hype' watches at better margins while narrowing the focus of their live auction catalogs. Catalogs might start to look a little more like how they used to, which isn't a bad thing. I’m confident 2023 will be another strong year for any watch that combines the following criteria: rarity, condition, provenance and something tells me there will be a few of those next year." Digging down a little further as to the specifics of those desirable watches, Touchot highlights independent makers. "One trend that looks like it will stand the test of time is the growing popularity of Independent watchmakers such as F.P. Journe, De Bethune and Roger W. Smith. Other exciting talents are yet to make their auction debut, and then there is of course the much-anticipated return of Daniel Roth." 

The Rise And Rise of Independents

Another believer in the power of independents is @NYCwatchguy, who argues that they offer something different. “I'm really excited about the new batch of independent watchmakers that are starting to make a name for themselves. Some of them are just coming out of school, while others have worked for major brands, but all are realizing that they all add something unique. Two in particular that have released watches in the past year are Sylvain Pinaud and Theo Auffret."

He also thinks that more collectors are waking up to the appeal of this kind of watchmaking. "More and more collectors that have spent their whole lives thinking that Rolex, Patek and AP are the only brands worth buying are starting to realize that real watchmaking is taking place in tiny ateliers with small, passionate teams that do a lot by hand. I expect it to become harder and harder to get independent watches at retail and even on the secondary market, given that demand will greatly outstrip supply,” he says. 

Not only this, but he thinks that maturing tastes will mean new designs find a place at the table. "We might see an acceptance of designs that were perhaps considered too avant-garde by many collectors just a few years ago. I think we're starting to see that with brands like MB&F and Urwerk, where collectors that would never have considered buying a watch like that are suddenly realizing that it's pretty cool to rock something that people look at and go, "What the heck is that?!"

Daytona Dreams

Lung Lung Thun is a collector with a keen eye and exceptional taste, so naturally, we got her take on what she's expecting to see this year. "I think tzhe focus continues to be on unisex watches, the usage of sustainable materials, smaller sized pieces, and reviving old designs with a modern twist. I do not see this as a year for big watch brands to push out something radically new. As for the anniversary of the Daytona, I think they will release a gem-set Daytona – something that is equally bold and exciting as the previous few years, like the Eye of the Tiger.” 

On top of that, Thun is excited to see where the ongoing ultra-thin race between Piaget, Bulgari, and now Richard Mille, is headed. "I love how the brands feel inspired by one another; it fosters new partnerships, pushes innovation and, for the end customer, creates more choices. I believe it is natural for the brands to keep exploring thinner watches, it's fascinating to see how far watch designs have evolved." 

Heart Over Hype

Finally, we had to ask Wristcheck founder Austen Chu on what he's expecting this year "Over the past few years, the big design trends have been centered around the integrated bracelet, sports watch. Alongside this, we've seen them get far too high and out of reach, which has led people to look elsewhere and actually realize that a lot of independent brands were actually cheaper, and when they do more research they realize that from a production standpoint, they're much more exclusive. I mean, brands like MB&F make a few hundred watches a year,” he says.

Chu isn't suggesting that the interest in steel sports watches is going away, as he believes they're so firmly ingrained in pop culture. "I think the past few years has brought in a huge influx of Gen-Z enthusiasts. The Rolex Daytona, the AP Royal Oak — these sorts of watches are gateway watches. What we're going to see is people who have chased hype in the past start to explore other things much quicker than would have happened for the average enthusiast, maybe 10 years ago. People will start following their heart and chase what they actually like aesthetically, instead of going after the ‘hype watches’.  This will contribute to the continued rise of the independents,” he explains. 

So there you have it. If things go according to plan, 2023 will be the year of the independents, of more sensible spending and maturing tastes. That doesn't sound so bad.